Why no one is exponentially smarter than others – Tractatus Logico-Universalis
We imagine the second one which means of the unique thesis is a lot more most likely and massively extra essential: that returns on concepts are fats-tailed. Consider two PhD scholars of kind of the similar intelligence: that is to mention, once they had been each admitted to this system, it is onerous to expect who will win, say, the Turing prize.
Now, even supposing they independently labored at the similar drawback, one of them gets to a operating resolution first, via a mix of happenstance, paintings, or ability, resulting in the winner-takes-all impact. Survivorship bias then filters from historical past textbooks the ones had been simply as succesful, however who had been just a little too overdue.
Even if the scholars paintings on other issues, Table 1 suggests how dangers and returns on issues are a ways from being uniformly dispensed. It is most likely secure to mention that almost all issues are merely no longer very dangerous and extraordinarily rewarding, and such a lot of geniuses pass overlooked. Otherwise, we’d have many extra geniuses than we see now, and we might no longer give such a lot of of them the identify, would we?
All of those results blended will make the profitable pupil seem “exponentially” smarter than the opposite with out in reality being the case. This 2nd which means is a lot more believable, however a lot much less thrilling, and due to this fact a lot much less widespread.